Bullish / Quiet holds — semis lead, homebuilders break.
The regime stayed bullish and quiet through the week. Breadth improved at the margin, leadership narrowed to semiconductors and digital infrastructure, and rate-sensitive groups weakened. The systematic SPY model remains risk-on; BTC stands aside.
At a glance
Computed on the 160-instrument enabled universe · 100-trading-day window ending 2026-06-04.
Regime
Direction firm, volatility compressed
The 100-day MQN held in the bullish band (0.70–1.47) all week, closing at +1.10. Twenty-day ATR as a share of price sat at 0.92% — firmly in the quiet zone — so the classification stays Bullish / Quiet, the most constructive of the market-type cells.
Historically this cell favors staying with leadership and avoiding counter-trend fades. The replay tool shows the last comparable stretch ran 7 weeks before a volatility expansion forced a reassessment.
Markets map
Leadership narrowed to semis & infrastructure
By MQN(100), the strongest groups were Digital Infrastructure (2.87), Taiwan (2.47), Data Centers (2.28) and Semiconductors (2.23). The weakest were rate-sensitive: Homebuilders (−0.66) flipped to superbearish, with Staples and Health Care soft.
| IDGT | Digital Infrastructure | 2.87 |
| EWT | Taiwan | 2.47 |
| DTCR | Data Centers | 2.28 |
| SMH | Semiconductors | 2.23 |
| ITB | Homebuilders | -0.66 |
| XLP | Staples | -0.41 |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.25 |
| XLB | Materials | 0.12 |
Breadth
Improving, but not broad
The bullish share of the universe ticked up to 36.3% (+2.1pts w/w). The distribution remains center-weighted — a healthy-but-narrow tape where the index is carried by a strong minority rather than a broad advance.
Strategy state
SPY risk-on · BTC stand-aside
With the gate open and trend confirmed above the 100-EMA, the SPY model carries one base unit. BTC sits in a neutral/normal cell — the rules direct standing aside until a directional regime resumes.
Read the full report & this week's playbook
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This is a sample report shown with illustrative data. NextOrderAlpha publishes educational, informational market commentary only — not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Model state reflects rules-based classifications, not signals or guarantees. Markets involve substantial risk of loss; past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.