What is MQN — the Market Quality Number.
One number that answers: how strong is this trend, and how tradeable is it?The Market Quality Number (MQN) is NextOrderAlpha's own metric and the core of the market classification. Start here, then branch into each tab.
How it is calculated
MQN scores trend quality from a market's daily returns: MQN = √N × mean(returns) / stdev(returns) over the last 100 sessions. A high positive MQN means returns have been both positive and consistent; a market grinding up steadily scores higher than one whipsawing to the same destination. The standard deviation in the denominator is what punishes choppy markets that merely look trendy.
From number to market type
The 100-day MQN is bucketed into a direction label. For equities/ETFs we use the bands: ≥ 1.47 Superbullish · 0.70 Bullish · 0 Neutral · −0.70 Bearish · below that Superbearish. Crypto trades a different distribution, so the crypto universe uses calibrated bands (≥ 1.75 Strong Bull / ≥ 0.70 Bull / ≥ 0 Neutral / ≥ −1.00 Bear / Strong Bear). Direction is then crossed with a volatility state (from the Wilder ATR(20)) to form the market type — e.g. Bullish / Quiet — the single read the whole platform is built around.
Crossing the five direction bands with the four volatility states gives the 20 market types the platform classifies every instrument into:
| Direction ↓ / Vol → | Quiet | Normal | Volatile | Supervolatile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SuperbullishMQN ≥ 1.47 | Superbullish / Quiet MQN ≥ 1.47 ATR z < −0.5 | Superbullish / Normal MQN ≥ 1.47 −0.5 to 0.5 | Superbullish / Volatile MQN ≥ 1.47 0.5 to 3.0 | Superbullish / Supervolatile MQN ≥ 1.47 z > 3.0 |
| Bullish0.70 – 1.47 | Bullish / Quiet 0.70 – 1.47 ATR z < −0.5 | Bullish / Normal 0.70 – 1.47 −0.5 to 0.5 | Bullish / Volatile 0.70 – 1.47 0.5 to 3.0 | Bullish / Supervolatile 0.70 – 1.47 z > 3.0 |
| Neutral0 – 0.70 | Neutral / Quiet 0 – 0.70 ATR z < −0.5 | Neutral / Normal 0 – 0.70 −0.5 to 0.5 | Neutral / Volatile 0 – 0.70 0.5 to 3.0 | Neutral / Supervolatile 0 – 0.70 z > 3.0 |
| Bearish0 to −0.70 | Bearish / Quiet 0 to −0.70 ATR z < −0.5 | Bearish / Normal 0 to −0.70 −0.5 to 0.5 | Bearish / Volatile 0 to −0.70 0.5 to 3.0 | Bearish / Supervolatile 0 to −0.70 z > 3.0 |
| Superbearish< −0.70 | Superbearish / Quiet < −0.70 ATR z < −0.5 | Superbearish / Normal < −0.70 −0.5 to 0.5 | Superbearish / Volatile < −0.70 0.5 to 3.0 | Superbearish / Supervolatile < −0.70 z > 3.0 |
Why it beats eyeballing a chart
- It is reproducible — the same data always yields the same label, through every regime since 1993.
- It separates strength from noise — the standard deviation in the denominator punishes choppy markets that look trendy.
- It scales across markets — the same formula ranks 160 instruments and 115 crypto assets on one scale, which is exactly how the leadership board is built.
See it live
Today's 100-day MQN, the volatility state, and the resulting market type are public on the Market Regime page — and the share of markets above the bullish threshold is the spine of Market Breadth.
Independence
MQN is our metric. The parameters are ours; the idea is simple.
The Market Quality Number (MQN) is NextOrderAlpha's own measure of market-regime quality. The inputs and the idea are shared openly — daily price & return series over rolling lookbacks, graded for strength and consistency and paired with a volatility read. The exact parameters and calibration are ours, but the idea is simple and we explain it in plain language.
MQN combines the consistency and size of moves into a single, comparable number across any instrument — 160 ETFs and 115 crypto assets on the same footing. We describe the inputs in plain language and show the bands we use; the exact calibration stays ours.
What we share
- The inputs & idea behind MQN
- The MQN bands and how to read them
- Data health so you know what's fresh
What we don't claim
- No signals, tips, or guaranteed outcomes
- Not financial advice — you make the call
- We keep the exact calibration ours